Texans Rookie WR Tank Dell Is a Fantasy Football Star

Houston Texans rookie WR Tank Dell had another massive fantasy performance in Week 11. He had eight receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown – totaling 28.9 PPR fantasy points.

We’re putting his elite rookie season into historical context before discussing how to value him for the rest of the fantasy season.

Historical Context for Dell’s Start

This section will only look at the first nine games of a player’s rookie season, as Dell has played in nine games.

When we look at the most receiving yards through a player’s first nine games (since 2013), Dell ranks seventh with 659 yards. The surrounding company is impressive. Overall, Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin are the only veterans in this top 20 who did not have productive fantasy careers.

We want spike week potential for fantasy football, where players can individually win our matchup. Dell has four games with at least 10 targets through his first nine games. Since 2013, only Puka Nacua (five) has more. Jaylen Waddle, Odell Beckham Jr. and Watkins are the only other players with four.

Turning to receiving yards, Dell has three games now with at least 100 yards. Only Justin Jefferson, Beckham Jr. and Nacua are ahead of him (each had four). Only five other receivers matched Dell’s three 100-yard performances through nine rookie games since 2013.

Translating this spike potential to fantasy points, Dell has four games with at least 20 fantasy points. Only three other players have reached that mark since 2013 (Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase and Beckham Jr.).

Dell has had an elite start to his rookie season with raw yardage and spike week output.

Rest of Season Fantasy Value

Dell is averaging 16.4 PPR fantasy points per game, 10th among all receivers this year (minimum six games played). 

My expected fantasy points model looks at a player’s usage to determine how many fantasy points he should have, and Dell ranks 19th among receivers by that process.

While he’s overperforming, playing with one of the best quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud should allow him to continue producing above expectations due to the Texans’ offensive environment.

During the offseason, I wrote about rookie wide receivers and how their production is back-loaded during their rookie season. Dell could increase his fantasy output during the final six weeks of the 2023 fantasy season.

Fantasy managers should value Dell as a high-end fantasy WR2 with a low-end fantasy WR1 upside. Think of him like Brandon Aiyuk or Chris Olave for the rest of the season.